What happened
In 2009, an earthquake devastated the Italian city of L’Aquila; killing 309 people, injuring more than 1,500 people, destroying some 20,000 buildings and leaving 65,000 people temporarily displaced.
The earthquake was 5.8 on the Richter scale and was preceded by over 100 low-magnitude tremors, known as seismic swarms for several months. Experts agree that seismic swarms rarely precced major earthquakes and in this case the probability that an earthquake would follow was only 2%. However, after a medium sized shock in a seismic swarm, the risk of a major quake rises in the short term although overall probability remains extremely low. Translating the risks of earthquakes for the general public is extremely challenging for officals, especially for low probability events where the risk of potential destruction and loss of life is very high.
Communication
The risk commission held a meeting in L’Aquila to supply the citizens in the region "with all the information available to the scientific community about the seismic activity of recent weeks". However, locals now view it as a public relations event to calm the populace and failed to educate them about vulnerability of local buildings and what to do in the event of a major quake.
Misinformation was spread in the press conference before the meeting by the vice-director of the Department of Civil Protection, where he said that the seismic situation in L'Aquila was "certainly normal" and posed "no danger", adding that "the scientific community continues to assure me that, to the contrary, it's a favourable situation because of the continuous discharge of energy". But there is no scientific evidence that repeated tremors reduce the probability of a major earthquake and earthquake scientists have since distanced themselves from his comments.
The people of L’Aquila took these words as a sign to stop worrying and many failed to take any precautions.
The trial
In a trial set to begin this week, an Italian judge will decide whether the symbolic death of L'Aquila and the deaths of citizens constituted a crime due to the negligence of six leading Italian scientists and one government official, who have been charged with manslaughter in connection with the case.
It should be remembered that earthquakes are impossible to predict with any accuracy. This charge has been met with protest from the scientific community which sent an open letter signed by 5,000 members to the president of Italy, Giorgio Napolitano. Internationally the American Geophysical Union and the American Association for the Advancement of Science have issued statements in support of the Italian scientists.
However, this trial is not questioning whether they could have predicted the earthquake but whether the scientists evaluated and communicated the potential risk of an earthquake clearly to the local population. The charges allege that "incomplete, imprecise, and contradictory information" was given to the public that had been unsettled by months of seismic swarms. Fabio Picuti, the public prosecutor, said that the commission was more interested in pacifying the local population than in giving clear advice about earthquake preparedness.
Outcome
The outcome of the trail will not be known for months, likely years as this is a watershed case. The scientists, if convicted, could face up to 15 years in jail.
L’Aquila is already being viewed as a case study for future risk assessment and public communication, and will force seismologists and scientists from all fields worldwide to rethink the way they describe low probability, high risk events. This is especially significant as climate change is set to amplify extreme weather events such as tornados, hurricanes, floods and droughts.
The trial is already serving as a precautionary tale to scientists and they are less willing to share their expertise and opinion with the public.
Communicating the idea behind risk and statistics is always difficult and chances but clear transparent public communication is of paramount importance when talking about risk.
Claire Gibbison
Community Engagement Executive, Athene Communications
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